In this guide
The 2028 US presidential election is 2+ years away — but prediction markets are already pricing the field, with Republican succession from Trump and Democratic primary competition trading actively. Early markets reward patient traders who identify value before the field narrows.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
With Trump constitutionally barred from a third term, the Republican field is wide open:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — VP structural advantage, Trump-aligned
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Governor popularity, rebuilt from 2024 primary loss
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Moderate lane, foreign policy credibility
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Popular two-term VA governor, business background
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Economic nationalist appeal
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Field wide enough for new entrants
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Clear frontrunner, institutional support
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Transportation Secretary visibility
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — California governor, national profile
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Pennsylvania swing state governor
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — 2028 is far enough for new entrant
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (essentially coin flip this early)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Early 2028 markets offer:
- Higher variance (more uncertainty = bigger potential returns for correct early calls)
- Longer duration to hold positions as information accumulates
- Opportunity to buy candidates before major news events lift their prices
Risk: early markets are more sensitive to unexpected events and candidate entry/exit decisions.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- History suggests VP nominees are strong but not guaranteed. Bush Sr (1988) succeeded Reagan; Gore lost as VP in 2000. Prediction markets price Vance as frontrunner but not dominant.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Republican and Democratic nomination markets resolve after each party's national convention — typically July/August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary markets typically open 6-12 months before those events — check PolyGram's political markets section.