In this guide
Copy trading — automatically mirroring the positions of consistently profitable traders — has transformed retail investing in traditional finance. In prediction markets, the concept is equally powerful: identify forecasters with genuine, sustained edge, and automatically follow their trades at the same odds.
How Prediction Market Copy Trading Works
PolyGram's social trading features allow you to:
- Browse leaderboards: See top-performing traders ranked by ROI, win rate, and total profit
- Analyze track records: View their trade history, calibration scores, and market focus areas
- Set copy parameters: Define maximum position size, which categories to copy, and stop-loss limits
- Automatic execution: When a followed trader opens a position, your account mirrors it proportionally
Identifying Traders Worth Copying
Not all profitable traders have sustainable edge. Look for:
- Volume of predictions: At least 50+ trades for statistical significance
- Consistent market focus: Specialists outperform generalists in prediction markets
- Calibration score: Not just win rate — their probability estimates should match actual frequencies
- Drawdown behavior: How did they perform during losing streaks? Did they size up irrationally?
- Recency bias filter: Check if recent performance matches historical or is just a lucky streak
Risks of Copy Trading
- Past performance is not a guarantee of future results — prediction markets change
- If you copy too slowly (delayed execution), you'll get worse prices than the original trader
- Correlation risk: if you copy multiple traders who all follow similar signals, your portfolio isn't diversified
FAQ
- Can I stop copying a trader at any time?
- Yes — you can pause or stop copy trading at any time. Existing copied positions remain open until you manually close them or they resolve.
- Is copy trading available for all market categories?
- You can filter copy trading to specific categories (e.g., only copy someone's political trades, not their crypto trades) based on where you believe their edge is genuine.
- What percentage of copy traders are profitable?
- Like original traders, most copy traders underperform if they don't carefully select who to follow. Systematic analysis of track records before copying is essential.