Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 62,500 | 100% |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100% |
| ↓ 62,500 | 100% |
| ↑ 62,500 | 100% |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 67,500 | 44% |
| ↓ 62,500 | 24% |
| ↑ 70,000 | 8% |
| ↓ 60,000 | 6% |
| ↑ 72,500 | 1% |
| ↓ 57,500 | 1% |
| ↓ 55,000 | 1% |
| ↑ 100,000 | 0% |
| ↑ 82,500 | 0% |
| ↑ 80,000 | 0% |
| ↑ 77,500 | 0% |
| ↑ 75,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 52,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 50,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 47,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 45,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 42,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 40,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 37,500 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for توقع: What price will Bitcoin hit in July?. What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: What price will Bitcoin hit in July?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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