Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,400 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,300 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,800 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,400 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,300 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,200 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum traded through the week of 20–26 July with the market still clustered around the $1,800–$2,000 zone, after opening near $1,871 on 20 July and later printing around $1,932 on 21 July, its strongest level in roughly six weeks.[1][4] That sits against a broader backdrop of Ethereum being well below its August 2025 peak near $5,000, which is why the crowd’s 0% pricing for a “YES” outcome should be read as a statement that the market does not expect an extreme move beyond the listed bands rather than as a view on direction alone.[3][6]
The most important comparable case is the recent technical break above a year-long downtrend, with traders pointing to a close above the $1,819–$1,838 resistance band as confirmation and $1,838 as the key level that had to hold.[4] At the same time, the same reports note that a move back below that area would undo the signal, while institutional forecasts were split, with Standard Chartered cited at $7,500 for year-end 2026 and Citi at $2,240 after a July downgrade.[4] For a market resolving on a one-week window, that kind of gap between chart momentum and longer-range valuation calls is usually more relevant than any single headline target.[4][11]
Traders should watch spot ETF flow data, because five straight days of inflows were cited as a support for the latest leg higher, and the move in ETH was also tracking a broader crypto rebound with Bitcoin near a two-week high around $65,500.[4] If ETH loses momentum while Bitcoin softens, the downside bands around $1,800 become more important; if ETF inflows and risk appetite persist, the $2,000 area remains the nearest psychological trigger.[4][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: What price will Ethereum hit July 20-26?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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