Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
69% | 31% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
69% | 31% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 69% |
| Map 2 Winner | 67% |
| Match Winner | 64% |
| Map 1 Winner | 53% |
| Map Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs ex-RUBY (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 1WIN (-3.5) vs ex-RUBY (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
Market context
1WIN’s round-of-16 meeting with ex-RUBY in the NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs lands in a tight pricing band because the teams enter with broadly similar recent records and limited head-to-head history. Recent listings show 1WIN with a run that includes wins over Nemiga, BET-M and HTX, while ex-RUBY have also taken three of their last five, including clean 2-0s against Lavked, ex-RUSTEC and Vexar.[7][9] The only recent meeting in the supplied results points the other way: ex-RUBY beat 1WIN 2-0 in January 2026, which is enough to explain why the crowd-implied 57% for 1WIN is only a modest favourite rather than a clear one.[6]
The market should move mainly on whether both teams field the line-ups shown in current match listings and on any late schedule changes around the BO3 start time.[7][11] Dust2 and Offstage both list 1WIN’s core as Ax1Le, ArtFr0st, fame, nafany and BELCHONOKK, while ex-RUBY are shown with 1eeR, sh1nejezzz, H4SAN4TOR, relaxxie and fineshine52 on one listing, and a slightly different five on another, which makes roster confirmation worth watching right up to check-in.[7][11] The event pages also indicate the match is part of NODWIN Clutch Series #10/Playoffs and is scheduled for 3 August, so any delay, forfeit or bracket reshuffle would matter directly to settlement.[1][4][8]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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