Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) | 57% |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) | 54% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs B8 (+3.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 44% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 40% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 39% |
| Map 2 Winner | 31% |
| Map 1 Winner | 24% |
| Match Winner | 19% |
Market context
B8 and Spirit meet in the Esports World Cup Round of 16 on 20 August 2026, a best-of-three fixture that will determine progression in one of Counter-Strike's most prestigious tournaments. The 24% implied probability for B8 reflects Spirit's standing as the stronger-seeded outfit, though the Ukrainian roster has shown inconsistency in recent months that complicates straightforward favouritism. Spirit's recent form has been mixed; whilst they remain a top-ten global team, they've dropped maps against mid-tier opposition and their firepower hasn't translated consistently into tournament results since early 2026. B8, conversely, has been climbing the rankings and posted solid performances at regional qualifiers, suggesting they arrive at this fixture with momentum rather than desperation.
Head-to-head records between these teams are sparse enough that recent form dominates the calculus. Spirit's last three LAN appearances saw them exit earlier than expected, whilst B8's qualification path involved defeating stronger seeded teams. The critical variable is roster stability: any last-minute line-up changes, visa delays, or player substitutions announced between now and match day could shift the probability substantially. Traders should monitor official Esports World Cup announcements and both teams' social media for roster confirmations, particularly given the August window when travel complications can emerge. The settlement window closes at 20:00 ET on match day, allowing roughly ten hours after the scheduled 10:00 AM ET start for results to be confirmed and any postponement notices to be issued.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: B8 vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Counter-Strike: B8 vs Spirit (BO3) - Esports W… on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →