Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 55% |
| Match Winner | 55% |
| Map 1 Winner | 54% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 47% |
| Map Handicap: EYE (-1.5) vs Phantom (+1.5) | 34% |
Market context
EYEBALLERS meet Phantom in a best-of-three at the Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10, with the market leaning slightly towards the Swedes at 54% after an evenly priced start. Recent pricing from PARI has EYEBALLERS at 1.50 and Phantom at 2.40, which broadly matches a modest favourite/underdog split rather than a mismatch.[4]
That reading fits the recent form line. EYEBALLERS arrive with a mixed run, including straight-map losses to FaZe in July, but they have also shown they can punch above their ranking in higher-level CS2.[1][9] Phantom have some momentum from qualifier wins over lower-ranked opposition, yet they were blanked 0-2 by Sashi on 4 August, and their profile in this field is still based more on recent qualifier results than on a long record of elite opposition.[1][13] The teams have not met in the last six months, so there is little direct head-to-head evidence to sharpen the line.[13]
For traders, the key catalysts are lineup confirmation, match timing, and whether either side has just come through an earlier Group 10 series with map fatigue or schedule pressure. EYEBALLERS were also active in the qualifier on 7 August, which makes short-rest dynamics relevant if their earlier match runs long or finishes late.[6][10] No injury or suspension issues are flagged in the available match listings, so any move is more likely to come from late roster news, veto expectations, or a change in the published start time than from player absence.[1][3]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Phantom (BO3) - Esports World Cup Open Qualifier Group 10. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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