Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs megoshort (+6.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-9.5) vs megoshort (+9.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: CS (-1.5) vs megoshort (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-12.5) vs megoshort (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 15.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs megoshort (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs megoshort (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-9.5) vs megoshort (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MEGO (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-6.5) vs megoshort (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-9.5) vs megoshort (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-12.5) vs megoshort (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: CYBERSHOKE Esports (-3.5) vs megoshort (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
megoshort meet CYBERSHOKE Esports in a Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 playoff quarter-final, and the market’s 0% YES price looks extreme against the shape of the recent data. CYBERSHOKE have already beaten megoshort once this year, 2-0 on 4 May in BC.Game Masters Season 2 Europe Series 1, which is the only recorded head-to-head in the supplied results.[8][10][3] Current ranking and form signals also favour CYBERSHOKE: Strafe lists them around #64 versus megoshort at #179, and says both sides have won three of their last five, while bo3.gg describes CYBERSHOKE as being in hot form with an 80% win rate over the last month.[3][1] megoshort’s own recent run is more mixed, although they did beat ex-MANA 2-0 in this same Thunderpick event on 25 July.[14][1]
The main read-through for traders is veto and roster stability rather than a clean mismatch. bo3.gg notes megoshort’s strongest map is Mirage, while Nuke is heavily avoided, which can matter if CYBERSHOKE steer the series towards a comfortable map pool.[1] CYBERSHOKE’s profile is stronger on Dust2 and Ancient, both of which have been frequent wins in their recent sample, so any surprise veto order could move the fair price materially.[1] The match was also listed for 17:00 UTC on 1 August across multiple schedulers, so a delay, reschedule, or roster change close to start time is the most obvious reason this market would drift away from the current consensus.[3][6][12]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Counter-Strike: megoshort vs CYBERSHOKE Esport… on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →