Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-3.5) vs Passion Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-9.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-3.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Passion Academy (-6.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-3.5) vs Passion Academy (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PSN.A (-1.5) vs SINQU Rehti (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SINQU Rehti (-1.5) vs Passion Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Passion Academy’s BO3 with SINQU Rehti in the European Pro League Group B is a loser-side match with little recent head-to-head history to anchor pricing, so the market is leaning almost entirely on current form and team quality rather than direct precedent. The available pre-match data points to Passion Academy carrying the weaker profile: one source lists them with five straight defeats, a 0% win rate over the past month, and only a 28% win rate over the last six months, while SINQU Rehti’s recent numbers are better but still modest, with one source showing just 1 win in their last 5 and another giving them a 28.6% recent win rate.[2][6][7][15]
That explains why a 0% YES line is more a reflection of execution risk than any proven mismatch. In comparable low-tier online BO3s, the team with the cleaner map pool and fewer recent losses usually attracts the early move, but these markets can still flip quickly if a roster list changes or if one side arrives with a substitute; the published line-ups currently show starters for both teams, and there is no recorded head-to-head in the last six months.[2][8][15] The main catalyst to watch is whether the match runs on schedule and under the listed rosters, because the market resolves 50-50 if it is not played, tied, or pushed beyond the seven-day window.[1][4]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs SINQU Rehti (BO3) - European Pro League Regular Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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