Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-3.5) vs Virtus.pro (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs BakS eSports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-3.5) vs BakS eSports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BAKS (-1.5) vs Virtus.pro (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-6.5) vs Virtus.pro (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BakS eSports (-9.5) vs Virtus.pro (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs BakS eSports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-12.5) vs BakS eSports (+12.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-6.5) vs BakS eSports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Virtus.pro (-9.5) vs BakS eSports (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Virtus.pro’s clash with BakS eSports in the CIS LAN Championship playoffs ended with Virtus.pro winning the best-of-three 2-1, which makes a 0% YES price understandable if the market was still open before settlement. That result also fits the broader pattern from Virtus.pro’s recent regional run, where they won CIS LAN Championship #5 and were again advancing deep in #6 with a quarter-final victory over CYBERSHOKE the day before this semi-final slot[1][5][6][8][12].
For traders, the main live catalyst is no longer team strength but event status: the match has already been completed, so the key dependency is whether the market’s settlement logic recognises the finished result or instead treats a delayed/cancelled fixture as a fallback case. Match listings across trackers show the same pairing on 30 July, but with slightly different scheduled times and status handling, which is exactly the sort of scheduling mismatch that can matter for a market tied to a strict settlement window[1][2][4]. Recent form data still points one way even without the final score: Virtus.pro entered the bracket with stronger recent results and higher ranking indicators than BakS, while BakS were the underdog on form and historical expectations[3][8].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs BakS eSports (BO… on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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