Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 51% |
| Game 2 Winner | 51% |
| Match Winner | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 51% |
| Game Handicap: Amaru Gaming (-1.5) vs Team Jenz (+1.5) | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Game Handicap: Team Jenz (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) | 50% |
Market context
Amaru Gaming and Team Jenz meet in a best-of-three online group-stage match that is still live on the schedule, with several match pages listing an 8 August start and a first meeting in the last six months. The market’s **53% Yes** looks like a narrow favourite, which fits a contest where neither side has shown enough dominance to price in a clear edge, and where the published line-up lists are broadly intact for both teams. [1][8][10][19]
The historical read is mixed. Team Jenz arrive with the cleaner recent sequence in the available match data, including a 4–1 run in play-ins and a current two-match winning streak, but those wins came largely against lower-ranked opposition, which limits how much they prove against a stronger bracket opponent. Amaru, by contrast, have a more uneven recent profile: one source notes three wins in their last five and a 47% half-year win rate, plus a 0–2 loss to LGD in June, suggesting they can compete but have struggled when the level rises. [2][8][16]
For traders, the main catalysts are scheduling certainty and any late roster or forfeit news. The match is set for a Bo3, so it only needs one map to settle the market unless there is a cancellation, tie, or a delay beyond seven days, and those outcomes would trigger a 50-50 resolution under the market rules. The line-up pages currently show full starters for both sides, but in Dota 2 these markets can move quickly on last-minute stand-ins, technical defaults, or revised bracket timing, so any update from the tournament tracker or team announcements is the key near-term watchpoint. [1][2][10][18]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Team Jenz (BO3) - EPL Masters Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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