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توقع: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Game 2 Winner 100% O/U 2.5 Games 100% Both Teams Beat Roshan 100% Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? 100% Volume: $1.8M Liquidity: $562K Closes: 13 Aug 2026
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توقع: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Game 2 Winner100%
O/U 2.5 Games100%
Both Teams Beat Roshan100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2?100%
Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2?99%
Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 2?99%
Both Teams Beat Roshan91%
Any Player Ultra Kill91%
Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 2?91%
Match Winner81%
Ends in Daytime50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks50%
Any Player Ultra Kill50%
Any Player Rampage50%
Ends in Daytime10%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks10%
Any Player Rampage10%
First Blood in Game 2?10%
Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 2?1%
Game 1 Winner0%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5)0%
Ends in Daytime0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks0%
Any Player Ultra Kill0%
Any Player Rampage0%
First Blood in Game 1?0%
Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)0%
Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 1?0%

Market context

LGD Gaming, the Chinese powerhouse, face Team Resilience in a Round 2 group-stage fixture at The International 2026. The match is scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 13 August, with a best-of-three format determining advancement. LGD enter as one of the tournament favourites, having won The International twice (2015, 2017) and consistently placing top-four at recent majors. Team Resilience's qualification to this stage signals competitive pedigree, though their roster composition and recent LAN performance remain less documented in mainstream coverage compared to established Chinese organisations.

The 0% implied probability reflects either missing market liquidity or genuine uncertainty about match occurrence rather than genuine competitive assessment. Historical precedent from The International group stages shows cancellations are rare; matches typically proceed unless visa complications, equipment failure, or force majeure intervene. LGD's infrastructure and sponsorship backing make no-show scenarios negligible. The settlement window closes 13 August at 15:15 UTC, providing a 10-hour buffer after the scheduled 09:00 UTC start time for result confirmation.

Traders should monitor official The International 2026 schedule updates and any roster announcements from either organisation in the 48 hours preceding the match. LGD's recent performance at qualifying events and Team Resilience's group-stage seeding will inform competitive positioning, though these details remain unavailable until tournament brackets finalise. Equipment or connectivity issues affecting either team's bootcamp setup could trigger postponement; such incidents typically trigger the seven-day delay clause rather than outright cancellation.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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