Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 99% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 2? | 99% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 91% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 85.5 in Game 2? | 91% |
| Match Winner | 81% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Team Resilience (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: TR (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 95.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
LGD Gaming, the Chinese powerhouse, face Team Resilience in a Round 2 group-stage fixture at The International 2026. The match is scheduled for 5:00 AM ET on 13 August, with a best-of-three format determining advancement. LGD enter as one of the tournament favourites, having won The International twice (2015, 2017) and consistently placing top-four at recent majors. Team Resilience's qualification to this stage signals competitive pedigree, though their roster composition and recent LAN performance remain less documented in mainstream coverage compared to established Chinese organisations.
The 0% implied probability reflects either missing market liquidity or genuine uncertainty about match occurrence rather than genuine competitive assessment. Historical precedent from The International group stages shows cancellations are rare; matches typically proceed unless visa complications, equipment failure, or force majeure intervene. LGD's infrastructure and sponsorship backing make no-show scenarios negligible. The settlement window closes 13 August at 15:15 UTC, providing a 10-hour buffer after the scheduled 09:00 UTC start time for result confirmation.
Traders should monitor official The International 2026 schedule updates and any roster announcements from either organisation in the 48 hours preceding the match. LGD's recent performance at qualifying events and Team Resilience's group-stage seeding will inform competitive positioning, though these details remain unavailable until tournament brackets finalise. Equipment or connectivity issues affecting either team's bootcamp setup could trigger postponement; such incidents typically trigger the seven-day delay clause rather than outright cancellation.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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