Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 99% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 51% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 51% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Liquid face Vici Gaming in a best-of-three opening fixture at The International 2024 group stage on 13 August. The match represents a significant early test for both organisations, with seeding implications for subsequent bracket progression. Team Liquid qualified through the Western qualifiers whilst Vici Gaming secured their berth via the Chinese regional pathway, positioning this encounter as a direct regional strength comparison at the tournament's outset.
The 100% implied probability reflects Team Liquid's recent tournament trajectory and roster stability. Team Liquid finished second at the Dota Pro Circuit's Manila Major in June 2024, demonstrating consistent top-tier performance across their current five-man lineup. Vici Gaming, conversely, underwent roster adjustments in the lead-up to The International, with their mid-lane position seeing changes that may affect coordination during early group-stage matches. Head-to-head records between these squads show competitive history, though Team Liquid's recent LAN results carry greater weight given the recency of their Manila performance and the established synergy within their current roster.
Traders should monitor official tournament communications regarding match scheduling confirmation and any last-minute roster amendments through to the 12 August deadline. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 August, creating a tight window for resolution following the scheduled 1:00 AM ET start. Any technical delays, disconnections, or unforeseen cancellations within the seven-day grace period would trigger a 50-50 resolution, though such occurrences remain statistically rare at The International's infrastructure standards.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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