Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs PuckChamp (+1.5) | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
Market context
PuckChamp and Zero Tenacity are set for a best-of-three in EPL Masters Group B, and the market is being priced as if the result is already close to decided, with the crowd currently at 0% YES. That is hard to square with the available form lines: Strafe lists Zero Tenacity at 3 wins from their last 5, against 1 from 5 for PuckChamp, while DLTV’s match page shows Zero Tenacity carrying the stronger recent win rate and a more favourable first-blood profile. Both teams are close in ranking, but the recent numbers lean towards Zero Tenacity rather than a one-sided spot[2][14].
The cleanest historical frame is that these teams do not have a deep head-to-head sample, but the last meeting reported by Offstage ended 2-0 to Zero Tenacity in EPL Masters I, which matters more than broad season averages in a short BO3. PuckChamp did beat KW 2-0 in their latest listed result on 25 July, but that only confirms they can close weaker opposition rather than that they are clearly ahead in this pairing[6][12]. The comparable cases here are straightforward: when teams are this close in ranking, series outcomes usually depend less on reputation and more on draft execution and map one volatility[2][4].
The main catalysts are lineup confirmation, match timing, and whether either side fields the same five shown on the live match pages. Strafe and GosuGamers both still list full starters, with no suspension or injury notes attached, so any late roster swap would be the most important line-moving development before the 09:00 UTC start[2][4]. The market also sits inside a tight settlement window: if the series is delayed or not completed within seven days, it resolves 50-50, so traders will want to watch for any schedule disruption on tournament and live-score feeds rather than assuming the fixture goes ahead exactly as posted[1][2].
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - EPL… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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