توقع: Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

Xtreme Gaming and GamerLegion are scheduled to meet in the second round of The International group stage on 13 August 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, competing in a best-of-three format. The 0% implied probability suggests either significant uncertainty about match completion or a strong expectation that one team will not field a roster by the settlement deadline.

The International's group stage format has historically seen fixture disruptions due to visa delays, player illness, and last-minute roster changes, particularly when teams span multiple continents. In 2023, several matches experienced postponements exceeding the standard 7-day window, creating ambiguity around settlement. The current 0% reading may reflect trader caution about whether both rosters will be confirmed and available by the 14 August 08:00 UTC settlement window—a narrow 22-hour window after the scheduled match time that leaves minimal buffer for rescheduling.

Key catalysts include official roster confirmations from both organisations, which typically arrive 48–72 hours before group stage fixtures. Any announcement of player substitutions, visa complications, or health issues affecting either team's starting five would immediately shift the probability. The International's fixture schedule occasionally experiences compression or delays based on earlier matches running long, potentially affecting the 13 August timeslot. Traders should monitor Valve's official announcements and team social media channels for updates on participation status, as the tight settlement window means even minor scheduling adjustments could trigger resolution complications.

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.