Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 75% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 74% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 25% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yellow Submarine and Execration are due to meet in a best-of-three Group A match at Games of the Future, with listings putting the start around 05:00 UTC on 31 July. The market at 100% YES is already in line with the fixture having gone live, but the real trading question is whether the series completes cleanly inside the settlement window rather than whether the matchup exists on the schedule.[1][13][18]
On comparable form and price signals, Yellow Submarine have been rated the stronger side by recent market-making and preview data, with bookmaker pricing showing them favoured over Execration and some match pages also listing Yellow Submarine as the higher-ranked roster. The two teams are not shown with a strong historical head-to-head sample in the available listings, so pre-match reads lean more on recent results and roster continuity than on direct matchup history.[3][7][12] That matters in a BO3 because one clean draft edge can swing the series, but it also leaves more room for variance than a single map market.
For traders, the main catalysts are late team-sheet confirmation and any schedule slippage around the Games of the Future broadcast slot. Some coverage has already shown the match as live or even finished, while other listings still show it as upcoming, which is the sort of cross-site inconsistency that can matter if organisers delay, reschedule, or void a fixture.[5][8][9][17] The market rules also make a completed result less important than the match actually being played to conclusion, since an unplayed fixture or a prolonged postponement would resolve away from a straightforward team winner.[1]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Execration (BO3) - Games of the Future Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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