Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 62% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 61% |
| Match Winner | 59% |
| Game 1 Winner | 55% |
| Game 2 Winner | 55% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 51% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 49% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 49% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 48% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 37% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 37% |
| Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) | 32% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 26% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 8% |
Market context
Anyone's Legend face Top Esports in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LPL Group Ascend competition on 19 August 2026. The fixture carries particular weight given Top Esports' historical dominance in Chinese regional play and Anyone's Legend's emergence as a competitive challenger in recent splits. Current crowd pricing at 54% for Anyone's Legend suggests modest confidence in the underdog, reflecting genuine uncertainty about form trajectories rather than a clear favourite narrative.
Top Esports have maintained consistent playoff qualification across multiple LPL seasons, though their 2026 spring and summer performances warrant scrutiny. Recent roster adjustments and mid-season substitutions have created volatility in their win-loss records. Anyone's Legend, conversely, has demonstrated improved coordination in group-stage matches, with particular strength in early-game macro play and jungle-support synergy. Head-to-head records between these organisations show competitive matchups rather than one-sided dominance, with outcomes heavily dependent on patch-specific champion viability and individual player form on the day.
Traders should monitor official LPL announcements regarding any last-minute roster changes or player availability confirmations through to the settlement window closure on 19 August at 15:00 UTC. Patch notes released within 72 hours of the match can significantly alter champion priority and team preparation strategies. Broadcast schedules and potential technical delays remain relevant given the 04:00 ET start time, which occasionally correlates with production complications in regional coverage. Any confirmed substitutions or injury disclosures from either organisation would materially shift the implied probability.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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