Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 7% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
FlyQuest meet Team Liquid in a best-of-three LCS regular-season series, and the market’s 0% YES price implies the room is treating a FlyQuest win as a long shot. That is consistent with the recent series shape: Team Liquid won the April 2026 regular-season meeting 2-1, while the latest August 2026 listing from Polymarket had Team Liquid priced ahead at roughly 68% versus FlyQuest at 33%, with Team Liquid cited as unbeaten and FlyQuest at 1-1 in the split.[11][13]
The longer series record also leans Team Liquid’s way. Across archived head-to-head data, Team Liquid have a clear edge in total meetings, and recent comparable match pages show them winning 2-1 in spring after FlyQuest took individual games, which matters in BO3 markets where one strong draft or side-selection swing can keep an underdog live even when the series price is skewed.[6][10][11] FlyQuest have still taken recent maps and series in the broader rivalry, so the matchup has not been one-way; the key distinction is that Team Liquid have been the more reliable side in the most recent comparable official encounters.[6][9][11]
For traders, the main catalysts are late roster or substitute confirmations, and any schedule disruption before the 03:35 UTC settlement window, because the market resolves to 50-50 if the match is not played, is tied, or is delayed beyond seven days. The relevant live match listings show no injury or suspension issue in the cited data, so the practical watchpoints are official start-time changes, roster lock announcements, and whether either team enters with a confirmed full-strength line-up rather than a last-minute stand-in.[2][13]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade توقع: LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - LCS Regul… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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