Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 91% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | 91% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 1? | 91% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 21.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 10% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 36.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs RED Canids (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
FURIA Esports face RED Canids in a League of Legends best-of-three fixture within the CBLOL Regular Season on 15 August at 12:00 PM ET. The market currently reflects near-certain confidence in a FURIA victory, with the crowd-implied probability at 100%.
FURIA have established themselves as one of Brazil's premier League of Legends organisations over recent seasons, consistently competing at the upper tier of CBLOL standings. RED Canids, whilst a competitive regional outfit, typically occupy a lower rung in the league hierarchy. Historical matchups between these sides have generally favoured FURIA, though the specific head-to-head record and recent form trajectories warrant scrutiny before settlement. The 100% probability pricing suggests the market has already priced in a significant skill gap or recent performance differential that makes RED Canids' upset chances negligible in trader assessment.
Traders should monitor official CBLOL scheduling announcements through 14 August for any roster changes, player suspensions, or injury disclosures that could alter competitive balance. Technical issues or broadcast delays have occasionally affected CBLOL fixtures; any postponement beyond seven days without a completed match triggers the 50-50 resolution clause. Confirmation of both teams' final line-ups and starting rosters closer to match time remains critical, as mid-season roster adjustments in the CBLOL can occasionally shift expected outcomes. The settlement window closes at 22:00 UTC on 15 August, allowing approximately ten hours post-scheduled start for match completion and resolution determination.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Trade توقع: LoL: FURIA Esports vs RED Canids (BO3) - CBLOL… on احتمالات كأس العالم
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →