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توقع: LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Match Winner 90% Game 2 Winner 76% Game 3 Winner 76% Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) 76% Volume: $82K Liquidity: $332K Closes: 27 Sept 2026
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توقع: LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 90% 10% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 90% 10% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner90%
Game 2 Winner76%
Game 3 Winner76%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5)76%
Game 1 Winner75%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 3?71%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 2?71%
Game 4 Winner59%
O/U 3.5 Games55%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
First Blood in Game 4?51%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 4?51%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4?50%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
First Blood in Game 2?49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
First Blood in Game 3?49%
Odd/Even Total Kills47%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+2.5)46%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1?42%
Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1?29%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
O/U 4.5 Games20%

Market context

The توقع: LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs prediction market currently prices this outcome at 90% YES. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket semifinal match between LYON and Shopify Rebellion in the LCS Playoffs, initially scheduled for September 26, 2026 at 4:00 PM ET. This market will resolve …

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: LYON vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

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