Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 55% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 3% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% |
Market context
The Ruddy Sack face Volda E-Sport in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the NLC Regular Season, scheduled for 27 July at 2:00PM ET. The settlement window closes the same evening at 22:00 UTC, allowing roughly 20 hours for the fixture to conclude. Resolution hinges on match completion; cancellation, ties, or delays exceeding seven days without a determined winner trigger a 50-50 split.
The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptional clarity about team capabilities or sparse historical data on these particular rosters. NLC competition typically features volatile performance across seasons, with roster changes and player development cycles creating substantial variance in match outcomes. Without established head-to-head records or recent tournament placements publicly available, the extreme confidence in this market likely stems from significant disparity in current squad composition, recent scrim results visible to informed traders, or recent league standings that heavily favour one side.
Traders should monitor official NLC announcements regarding any roster changes, player availability, or scheduling adjustments through the league's official channels in the days preceding the match. Technical issues during broadcast—which occasionally trigger replay requirements or extended delays—represent a secondary risk factor given the tight settlement window. Any withdrawal or substitution of key players announced after market creation could shift the underlying match dynamics substantially, though the current pricing suggests such developments are already factored into expectations.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Volda E-Sport (BO3) - NLC Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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