Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
74% | 26% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
74% | 26% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 74% |
| Map 1 Winner | 68% |
| Map 2 Winner | 68% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 62% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 62% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 61% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 56% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 56% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 55% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 53% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 52% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 51% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 49% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 49% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 48% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 48% |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 47% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 44% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 42% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 41% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 74% probability to توقع: valorant: 100 thieves vs fut esports (bo3) - vct champions group a. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between 100 Thieves and FUT Esports in the VCT Champions Group A, initially scheduled for September 30, 2026 at 5:00 AM ET. This market will resolve t…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Champions Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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