Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-2.5) vs FURIA Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs FURIA Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-7.5) vs FURIA Esports (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-5.5) vs FURIA Esports (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-4.5) vs FURIA Esports (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-6.5) vs FURIA Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-7.5) vs FURIA Esports (+7.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA Esports (-2.5) vs MIBR (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
FURIA Esports meet MIBR in a best-of-three VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha match, with the market sitting at 0% YES despite MIBR entering as the stronger side on recent form and ranking. Public match data lists MIBR well ahead of FURIA in global standings, with MIBR around 43rd and FURIA around 78th, while Strafe’s form snapshot shows MIBR with two wins from their last five and FURIA with none from five.[2][3][8]
The historical read favours MIBR as well. The sides have met five times on Strafe’s record, with FURIA leading 3-2 overall, but the most recent head-to-head in February went FURIA’s way before MIBR answered with a 2-0 win in the later Stage 2 meeting listed by VLR.[8][4] That split history matters because this pairing has produced swingy map scores rather than a stable mismatch, which helps explain why a zero-priced FURIA position is hard to justify purely on name value.[4][8]
The main catalysts are straightforward: line-up confirmation, any late roster or substitute news, and whether the series is actually played on the scheduled timetable. The market rules also matter, because a forfeit or walkover before the start resolves to 50-50, while a match that begins but is not completed is settled to the team awarded the win.[1] Stage scheduling and match timing have already been tightened around Group Alpha fixtures, so traders should watch for official event updates or broadcast listings before assuming the series is live in full.[2][5][6]
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: FURIA Esports vs MIBR (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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