Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-3.5) vs Sharper Esport (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-3.5) vs Sharper Esport (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: RRQ (-1.5) vs Sharper Esport (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-2.5) vs Sharper Esport (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Rex Regum Qeon (-3.5) vs Sharper Esport (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SPE (-1.5) vs Rex Regum Qeon (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Rex Regum Qeon face Sharper Esport in the VCT Pacific Play-In upper bracket on 13 August, with the winner advancing and the loser dropping to the lower bracket. The match is scheduled for 7:00 AM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. This is a qualifying tournament for the broader VCT Pacific ecosystem, where teams compete for circuit points and playoff seeding.
The 0% implied probability for Rex Regum Qeon reflects either missing roster information or a significant shift in team composition that has not yet been priced into the market. Historical VCT Pacific play-in data shows that seeding and recent LAN performance matter substantially; teams with established international experience and stable five-man rosters typically command 55–70% odds against regional challengers. Without confirmed line-up details for either squad heading into August, traders should treat this probability as potentially unreliable rather than predictive. Sharper Esport's recent tournament results and Rex Regum Qeon's performance at the last VCT Pacific stage would normally anchor the baseline, but the absence of this context in the current market suggests incomplete information.
Traders should monitor for roster announcements, coaching changes, or stand-in confirmations from either organisation in the week before play-in matches commence. VCT Pacific tournaments often feature late-notice substitutions due to visa issues or personal circumstances. Any official statement from either team regarding their competing line-up, or confirmation of the match proceeding on schedule without delays, would clarify whether the current 0% reflects genuine predictive consensus or a data gap. The settlement window closes at 16:25 UTC on 13 August, allowing roughly nine hours after the scheduled start time for the match to conclude.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Sharper Esport (BO3) - VCT Pacific Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
Trade توقع: Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Sharper Esport (BO… on احتمالات كأس العالم
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