Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: SGE (-1.5) vs Team Heretics (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 98% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 91% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 91% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) | 55% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 45% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-6.5) vs Team Heretics (+6.5) | 45% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-3.5) vs Team Heretics (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-6.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5) vs Team Heretics (+2.5) | 9% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Eintracht Frankfurt (-4.5) vs Team Heretics (+4.5) | 9% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 9% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 9% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-3.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.5) | 2% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: TH (-1.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-2.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-5.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+5.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Heretics (-4.5) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (+4.5) | 0% |
Market context
Eintracht Frankfurt face Team Heretics in a lower bracket quarterfinal best-of-three match within the VCT EMEA Play-Ins qualifier, scheduled for 14 August 2026. The winner advances through the regional competition pathway toward qualification for international VCT events. Frankfurt enter as a German organisation with established infrastructure in esports, whilst Heretics represent a Spanish roster with consistent European circuit presence.
The 100% implied probability reflects either a technical certainty in the market's construction or an assumption that the match will proceed as scheduled without cancellation or postponement. Historical precedent in VCT EMEA qualifiers shows that lower bracket matches rarely fail to complete; cancellations typically occur only when organisations withdraw entirely or face force majeure circumstances. Ties are mechanically impossible in Valorant's competitive format, which uses map-based elimination. The settlement window closing at 21:00 UTC on match day allows roughly ten hours post-scheduled start time for result confirmation, standard for regional qualifier events.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the week preceding 14 August, as substitute players or stand-ins can materially affect competitive balance. VCT EMEA administrative announcements regarding bracket adjustments, venue changes, or scheduling conflicts should be tracked through official Riot Games channels. Recent form data from both teams' performances in preceding play-in rounds will establish baseline expectations; Frankfurt's domestic circuit results and Heretics' recent European tournament showings provide the most relevant comparative metrics for assessing match outcome likelihood.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Ins. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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