توقع: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz issue is now being traded against a live diplomatic track, not a hypothetical one. Since mid-June, U.S. and Iranian statements have repeatedly referred to a memorandum of understanding, a ceasefire framework, and steps to reopen or normalise shipping, while recent Treasury action waived sanctions on Iranian oil and petroleum products through 21 August 2026, extending the practical value of any deal that locks in maritime access.[1][9][17]

For probability read-through, the key comparison is between agreements that are announced and agreements that are fully implemented. In June, official and media reports said the arrangement would reopen the strait immediately or within a 60-day period, but later reporting showed the route still became a source of dispute, with Iran and U.S. officials giving different accounts of what had been agreed and how far shipping access would really be restored.[6][8][10] That matters here because a market on a *diplomatic agreement* needs an official instrument with commitments on traffic, not just a temporary de-escalation or public signalling.[9][19]

The main catalysts now are any formal communiqué from Washington, Tehran, Muscat, or the UN-linked mediators, plus the timing of technical follow-up talks. Reuters reported on 4 August that the United States and Iran were sending conflicting signals, with Trump saying talks were under way while Iran denied negotiations were taking place and said no meetings were scheduled.[3] Against that, Iranian officials and regional intermediaries have said discussions with Oman were in their final stages, so traders will watch for a signed text, a joint statement, or a sanctions-linked implementation notice; absent those, shipping incidents in the strait are more likely to raise risk premia than to produce a qualifying agreement.[5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.