توقع: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is already trading far below normal, but not at a literal zero. Reuters reported in mid-July that just three commodity vessels crossed on one day, then six vessels on another, after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and attacks on shipping pushed transits to a two-month low.[9][10] Earlier in the crisis, flows fell to single digits a day versus a pre-war norm of roughly 125-140 ships, and even during the tightest squeeze some Iranian-linked or tanker traffic still got through.[1][3][4][8]

That history matters for reading a 0% implied chance: the market is asking for an IMF PortWatch daily reading of zero arrivals, which means every qualifying container, dry bulk, ro-ro, general cargo and tanker transit must disappear from the dataset for a whole day. Recent reporting shows repeated near-standstill conditions, but also continued exceptions, including seven vessels in 24 hours in late April and six or three vessels on later July snapshots.[1][11][9][10] In other words, the current pattern supports extremely depressed traffic, not yet an all-clear on complete cessation.

For traders, the key catalysts are security and policy updates that can instantly change ship behaviour: any new U.S. blockade action, Iranian closure warning, ceasefire, or fresh attacks on merchant vessels. Reuters has already tied the July decline to renewed strikes and the resumption of a U.S. blockade on Iran-related shipping.[9][10] The other dependency is data timing: IMF PortWatch only resolves on published daily counts, so the trade can hinge on whether a disrupted day is logged as zero or as a delayed-but-non-zero update after ships are reclassified.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.