توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The June accord between Washington and Tehran is only a framework, not a final nuclear settlement, and the market’s 0% price reflects that distinction. The written understanding reported on 14–15 June opened a 60-day period for further talks, with core issues such as enrichment levels and the disposition of highly enriched uranium still left for later negotiation[1][6]. Reuters also reported on 1 July that the sides concluded another round in Doha with no sign of progress towards a lasting peace, suggesting the process has moved through multiple interim steps without yet producing the kind of signed, comprehensive instrument this market requires[4].

Historically, the comparison set is more useful for failed or partial interim deals than for full treaties. Earlier rounds in February were described as “more productive” and built around “guiding principles”, but even then the parties still needed technical follow-ups in Vienna and later text exchanges before any final document could emerge[5][7][9]. That pattern matters for reading the current line: repeated announcements of progress have not yet translated into a mutually signed final deal, and the latest public reports still frame the talks as ongoing rather than concluded[3][11].

For traders, the main catalysts are the next formal negotiating round, any confirmation that a draft text has been initialled or adopted, and whether technical files on inspections, sanctions relief, and stockpile handling are closed out. The Guardian reported on 22 June that Iran had agreed to let UN nuclear inspectors return, while the US was preparing sanctions waivers and Qatar had signed a separate memorandum on frozen assets, so any fresh steps on inspection access, shipping lanes, or asset release would be the clearest signal that the talks are moving from framework to final instrument[2][6][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.