توقع: Highest temperature in Ankara on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ankara’s hottest July days are usually a dry, high-sunshine affair, and that matters because the market is resolving to the *maximum* temperature at Esenboğa Airport rather than the daily average. Typical July conditions in Ankara feature a mean high around **31°C**, very little rain, and skies that are mostly clear, which supports a wide afternoon range on the upside if the heat builds steadily through the day.[3][1] July solar input is also near its seasonal peak and unusually stable across the month, reinforcing the idea that the temperature distribution is driven more by clear-sky heating than by day-to-day swings in sunshine.[2]

The current **0% YES** price implies the market is treating a qualifying high as effectively impossible, but the historical frame says otherwise: July in Ankara is routinely warm enough for low-30s readings, and dry conditions are common enough that a hot midday spike is plausible if cloud cover stays limited.[3][1] That does not make a very high print likely, but it does mean the market is sensitive to whether the day develops like a standard Ankara summer afternoon rather than a cooler, cloudier outlier.

For traders, the main catalysts are the live meteorological inputs rather than any news flow: the settlement source is Wunderground’s Esenboğa Intl Airport Station page, so intraday updates to the airport station’s recorded maximum will matter most. The key dependencies are the morning temperature trend, any unexpected cloud or haze, and whether the afternoon heating window is fully captured before the settlement cutoff.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Highest temperature in Ankara on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.