توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains far below normal traffic, with the latest published readings still showing only a handful of commercial transits a day rather than the pre-crisis flow needed for a 7-day average anywhere near 60. Recent reporting put weekend traffic at fewer than 20 commodity vessels in total, while PortWatch-linked trackers still described the route as effectively closed to normal commercial shipping and heavily dependent on AIS-visible crossings.[13][1][9]

That backdrop makes the current 18% YES price look consistent with a market that is discounting a quick, sustained reopening. Comparable cases this summer show the same pattern: even when the count improved from the single digits into the low teens, it remained far below the normal baseline of roughly 73 to 85 vessels a day cited in recent PortWatch-based reporting, and one Reuters-cited seven-day window still showed 89 exits against 103 entries rather than anything close to full normalisation.[12][13][9]

The main catalysts are straightforward: any de-escalation involving Iran, the US, or Gulf states; a visible return of tanker and commodity carriers on AIS; and PortWatch’s weekly publication cycle, which can lag the underlying traffic by several days. Trader attention should stay on whether shipping firms unwind rerouting, whether security incidents recur, and whether the published 7-day average can climb steadily enough to approach the 60-call threshold before 31 October.[13][8][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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