توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is still far from a clean return to normal shipping, which is why the market is well below an even chance despite the route being legally open at times. Recent trackers still show traffic at near-zero to very low levels versus a normal run-rate of about 60 transit calls a day, and reports in April and June said flows remained sharply impaired even after ceasefire talk and partial reopening steps.[1][7][8] Reuters also noted that hundreds of vessels and about 20,000 seafarers were stranded while insurers stayed cautious, underlining how damaged confidence can keep volumes depressed even when fighting eases.[9]

The historical guide here is the speed of the rebound, not the existence of a reopening announcement. Comparable reporting from June said one negotiated reopening could lift traffic quickly from five to ten vessels a day, but still leave it well short of pre-war levels, while other analysis suggested it could take weeks or months for congestion, security checks and insurance to normalise.[5][6] That matters because this market only resolves **Yes** if IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average reaches **60 or more**, so a partial recovery is not enough; the flow has to look broadly back to baseline and stay there long enough to lift the average.[1][6]

For traders, the key catalysts are any new U.S.-Iran security arrangement, naval escorts, mine-clearance updates and insurer behaviour, plus whether commercial operators actually add sailings rather than merely announce intent.[7][10] CNBC reported in July that traffic remained volatile and that U.S. Central Command still described the strait as open, but “open” has clearly not meant “normal” in Portwatch terms.[4] Any sustained jump in container, dry bulk and tanker movements over several days would be the cleanest sign that the 7-day average can approach the 60 threshold before the September deadline.[1][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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