توقع: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Gaza ceasefire’s second phase is the core issue behind this market: it would require a fresh, publicly announced agreement between Israel and Hamas on the next stage of the truce, including tougher questions such as Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament and Gaza’s future governance.[1][2] That is a materially higher bar than the first phase, which was framed around an initial halt in fighting, limited redeployment, prisoner exchanges and expanded aid.[1][3]

Recent history argues for caution on a 66% implied chance. The first phase has repeatedly been described as fragile or effectively stalled, with major disagreements over whether phase two can proceed without Israel seeing progress on disarmament and Hamas insisting that earlier terms be fully implemented first.[3][4] Even where officials have said phase two has “started” or been “announced”, reporting has also described the process as still contested, with the key elements — a permanent ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal and remaining hostage arrangements — still unresolved.[2][11][14]

For traders, the main catalysts are formal statements from Washington, Cairo, Doha and Jerusalem, plus any announced rounds of indirect talks or mediator-hosted meetings.[2][9][11] The market is most sensitive to whether Israel and Hamas move from parallel signalling to an actual mutual text or joint acceptance of phase two terms, particularly on troop withdrawal, disarmament and the structure of interim Gaza शासन arrangements.[1][6][18] Continued Israeli operations in Gaza, which multiple reports say have persisted despite the truce framework, remain a clear downside risk to a clean second-phase deal.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.