توقع: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

A special Republican primary in South Carolina will choose the party’s Senate nominee, with the winner moving on to face Democrat Annie Andrews in November if the special contest does not itself settle the nomination. The field is unusually large for such a compressed race: a dozen Republicans filed by the deadline, including sitting members of Congress Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former governor Mark Sanford, businessman Mark Lynch and Darlene Graham, who was appointed to the seat after Lindsey Graham’s death and is now on the ballot as well.[1][4][10]

The market’s 0% implied probability is hard to square with the actual race structure, because South Carolina’s Republican primaries often reward the best-known candidate or force a runoff when the vote splinters. In Graham’s regular 2026 primary, he won outright with 56.8%, while Lynch finished second on 28.9%, showing that a repeat bid can build a meaningful base but still leave room for a broader consolidation around a better-funded or higher-profile entrant.[13] Comparable special-election primaries in South Carolina have also gone to a runoff when no one clears 50%, which matters here because the state election commission has already set a possible runoff for 25 August.[7][15]

The immediate catalysts are filing, early voting and whether any late entrants or withdrawals reshape the field before 11 August. Filing has closed, early voting is set to run from 5 to 7 August, and the special primary itself is scheduled for 11 August; if no candidate tops 50%, the runoff follows on 25 August.[1][7][10] Traders should also watch for campaign-resource shifts and any signalling from the higher-profile candidates, because the current line-up spans federal officeholders, former statewide figures and repeat contenders, which increases the chance of vote-splitting and keeps the outcome sensitive to late momentum.[4][9][18]

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Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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