توقع: South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner

Platform comparison

Market context

The South Carolina Republican special Senate primary is a **first-round race on 11 August 2026**, with a runoff set for 25 August if nobody clears a majority. The current 0% yes price is hard to square with the ballot still open, but the only recent statewide analogue is the June 2026 regular Republican primary, where **Lindsey Graham** won outright with **56.8%** of the vote over **Mark Lynch’s 28.9%**, showing that a fragmented field can still produce a clear first-round winner.[7][11][15]

That 2026 primary is the best comparable case for reading this market because it gives the clearest evidence of candidate strength, turnout shape and county-level support ahead of another statewide Republican contest. Graham carried most counties and finished well above a runoff threshold, while anti-establishment and lower-profile challengers split the remaining vote, which is exactly the kind of distribution that tends to compress first-round winner probabilities around a single front-runner.[11][16] Earlier special-election straw polls also pointed to a divided field, with different candidates leading in different county gatherings rather than one dominant consensus pick.[19]

The main catalysts now are filing and ballot-line-up confirmation, any late endorsement shifts, and whether any contender emerges as the consolidation point for voters trying to avoid a runoff. SC Votes has the special primary scheduled for Tuesday, 11 August, and live result trackers from NPR, AP, NBC and the New York Times will matter once polls close because this market resolves strictly on the first-round vote total, not on the runoff or eventual nominee.[1][4][5][7] Polymarket pricing has already shown a wide gap between the main options, which means any late-breaking campaign news or turnout signal could move the book quickly if it changes expectations about who can finish first outright.[8][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary: First Round Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.