توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains well below normal, and the market is asking whether the 7-day average of ship calls gets back to at least 60 before year-end. That threshold matters because pre-crisis traffic was roughly around 100 daily crossings, while Reuters reported that the strait was at less than 10% of typical volumes in early April, with only seven vessels in the previous 24 hours versus a normal flow of around 140.[6] The current 56% YES price is broadly consistent with a partial recovery already under way, but not a clean return to pre-war conditions.[2][6]

Recent comparable moves suggest traders are still pricing in a slow, uneven rebuild rather than a rapid snap-back. CNBC reported on 8 July that Kalshi traders put only a 43% chance on normal traffic by 1 December, with the earliest forecast for normalisation landing on 1 January 2027 at 52%.[1] Earlier in June, Kalshi-linked pricing had already shifted from 66% for “won’t return to normal until January” to a lower probability of an in-year recovery, while Reuters and the New York Times both noted that traffic improved after the US–Iran agreement but remained far below pre-war levels despite official reopening language.[7][9]

The key catalysts are political rather than operational: any fresh US–Iran deal language, changes to naval restrictions, or reports of mine clearance and insurance normalisation could lift transit volumes quickly, while renewed threats, inspections, or fee/toll disputes would likely keep the average suppressed.[7][11] A Bloomberg-style read from late June noted that the reopening deal included a 60-day negotiation phase and temporary free transit, but also warned about technical and military obstacles, which means traders should watch whether the post-deal pickup becomes sustained rather than a short-lived spike.[7][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

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