Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
64% | 36% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
64% | 36% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 64% |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 33% |
| No Head of State | 2% |
| Edmundo González | 0% |
| María Corina Machado | 0% |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0% |
| Dinorah Figuera | 0% |
| Donald Trump | 0% |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0% |
| Marco Rubio | 0% |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0% |
| Pete Hegseth | 0% |
| Evan Pettus | 0% |
| Frank Donovan | 0% |
| Dan Caine | 0% |
| Richard Grenell | 0% |
| Leader 1 | 0% |
| Leader 2 | 0% |
| Leader 3 | 0% |
| Leader 4 | 0% |
| Leader 5 | 0% |
| Leader 6 | 0% |
| Leader 7 | 0% |
| Leader 8 | 0% |
| Leader 9 | 0% |
| Leader 10 | 0% |
| Leader 11 | 0% |
| Leader 12 | 0% |
| Leader 13 | 0% |
| Leader 14 | 0% |
| Leader 15 | 0% |
| Leader 16 | 0% |
| Leader 17 | 0% |
| Leader 18 | 0% |
| Leader 19 | 0% |
| Leader 20 | 0% |
| Leader 21 | 0% |
| Leader 22 | 0% |
| Leader 23 | 0% |
| Leader 24 | 0% |
| Leader 25 | 0% |
| Leader 26 | 0% |
| Leader 27 | 0% |
| Leader 28 | 0% |
| Leader 29 | 0% |
| Leader 30 | 0% |
| Leader 31 | 0% |
| Leader 32 | 0% |
| Leader 33 | 0% |
| Leader 34 | 0% |
| Leader 35 | 0% |
| Leader 36 | 0% |
| Leader 37 | 0% |
| Leader 38 | 0% |
| Leader 39 | 0% |
| Leader 40 | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
Venezuela leader end of 2026?. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 0% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-12-31T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Venezuela leader end of 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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