Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Inflation 20+ times | 100% |
| Good day | 100% |
| North Star | 100% |
| Predecessor | 100% |
| Bet / Betting | 100% |
| Balance Sheet | 100% |
| Central Bank | 100% |
| Productivity | 100% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 100% |
| Shock | 100% |
| Uncertainty | 100% |
| Dollar | 100% |
| Pandemic | 100% |
| Progress | 100% |
| Restrictive | 99% |
| Echo of History | 47% |
| Holding | 45% |
| Dissent | 23% |
| Spending | 23% |
| Anchor / Anchored | 22% |
| Projection | 7% |
| Consumer Confidence | 6% |
| Trump | 4% |
| Independence | 2% |
| Recession | 2% |
| Tax | 2% |
| Task Force 20+ times | 1% |
| Groupthink / Group think | 1% |
| Oil | 1% |
| President | 1% |
| Inflation 40+ times | 0% |
| Iran | 0% |
| Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 0% |
| Renovation | 0% |
| Good Afternoon | 0% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 0% |
| Innovation | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: what will kevin warsh say during july press conference? stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on July 29, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement a…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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