Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
84% | 16% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
84% | 16% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Venezuela | 84% |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | 76% |
| Job 20+ times | 76% |
| Fed / Federal Reserve | 71% |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | 68% |
| Iran / Israel 10+ times | 64% |
| Socialist | 64% |
| Transgender | 64% |
| Russia | 62% |
| Putin | 60% |
| Hell 3+ times | 59% |
| Biden / Obama 10+ times | 55% |
| Coal | 46% |
| Data Center | 40% |
| Transparent | 34% |
| Trump Derangement Syndrome | 25% |
| Filibuster | 23% |
| Six Seven | 13% |
| Nazi / Hitler | 9% |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 5% |
| -No Qualifying Event- | 4% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 84% YES probability for توقع: What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting?. Trump is scheduled to hold a cabinet meeting on July 31, 2026 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ytbAVpDBXs&t=62s). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says the listed term during the cabinet …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: What will Trump say during Cabinet Meeting?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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