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توقع: Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

How the prediction market is pricing "توقع: Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?" right now — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Joe Biden 100% Barack Obama 100% Nicolás Maduro 100% Jimmy Kimmel 100% Volume: $215K Liquidity: $37K Closes: 31 Jul 2026
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توقع: Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
100% 0% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
100% 0% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Joe Biden100%
Barack Obama100%
Nicolás Maduro100%
Jimmy Kimmel100%
Kaitlan Collins100%
Vladimir Putin68%
Marjorie Taylor Greene48%
Emmanuel Macron48%
Alex Jones42%
Zohran Mamdani40%
Jerome Powell38%
Tucker Carlson33%
Freidrich Merz10%
Candace Owens8%
Keir Starmer8%
Norah O'Donnell8%
Megyn Kelly7%
Pope Leo XIV7%
Pam Bondi5%
Benjamin Netanyahu5%
Kevin Warsh4%
Viktor Orbán3%
J.D. Vance1%
Xi Jinping1%
Elon Musk1%
Melania Trump0%
Mohammed bin Salman0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to توقع: who will trump publicly insult by july 31?. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner betw…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?
Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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Related Topics

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