توقع: Trump out as President by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in office and the market is still pricing an early exit at just 1% YES, which puts it deep in long-shot territory despite the contract’s relatively broad trigger. Polymarket’s wording means any qualifying announcement of resignation or permanent removal before 31 August 2026 would be enough to settle YES immediately, even if the departure itself were scheduled for later, while temporary loss of power does not count.[2]

That low price sits alongside a wider pattern in comparable Trump departure markets, where traders have repeatedly assigned a small but non-zero tail risk to an abrupt exit rather than a routine transfer. In other Trump-related prediction contracts, the no-side has generally carried the heavier weight, with one market on a longer-dated exit before 2027 showing the event still priced as unlikely even as traders continue to monitor health, legal and political risks.[3][13] Recent reports have also pointed to a brief rise in resignation odds on another market after concerns about Trump’s health and a notable absence from public activity, which shows how quickly sentiment can move on appearance-based headlines alone.[1]

For the next leg, traders will watch for any White House statement, verified medical update or change in public schedule that could be interpreted as a resignation signal, because the market resolves on the announcement rather than the mechanics of a later handover.[2] The practical dependency is simple: absent a formal and permanent departure notice, the contract stays anchored by the high base case that Trump remains president through the deadline, and short-lived speculation around staffing churn or routine absences is not enough on its own.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Trump out as President by August 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.