توقع: Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz has already bounced back from the early-June standstill, but it is still operating well below normal and the market’s 14% YES price reflects how much further traffic must rise. Reuters reported that traffic was at less than 10% of typical volumes on 9 April, while later tracking from Kpler and AXSMarine showed a sharp rebound to roughly 25–42 crossings a day in mid-June, with some days reaching the highest levels since the war began.[5][6][12] That is material progress, yet it still sits far from the pre-crisis norm of roughly 100-120 vessels a day cited by ship-monitoring and media reports.[6][9]

Comparable cases suggest the path back to “normal” can be uneven even after a diplomatic breakthrough. CNBC reported that traders briefly pushed odds above 50% after the June U.S.-Iran agreement, but in early June the same contract had already fallen to 21% for a pre-August recovery, underscoring how quickly sentiment can swing with new security developments.[1][2] Kpler has also said it expected only about 40 vessels a day within four weeks of the deal, with full normalisation potentially delayed well into 2027, which implies that getting to a seven-day average of 60 by end-August would require a sustained step-up, not just a one-off spike.[9]

For traders, the key catalysts are shipping-security updates, mine-clearance progress, and whether the U.S.-Iran reopening terms keep holding in practice. The June agreement was described as immediate in commercial terms and included a 60-day negotiation phase, but reports also noted unresolved technical and military constraints, plus continued uncertainty over whether vessels need clearance from Iranian authorities.[8][9] Weekly Portwatch-style readings matter because this market settles on a 7-day moving average, so a short burst of higher traffic may not be enough unless it persists long enough to lift the average above 60.[8][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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