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توقع: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

"توقع: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?" — live football odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Jared Kushner 73% Steve Witkoff 70% Abbas Araghchi 57% Majid Takht-Ravanchi 56% Volume: $141K Liquidity: $64K Closes: 31 Dec 2026
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توقع: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
73% 27% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
73% 27% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Jared Kushner73%
Steve Witkoff70%
Abbas Araghchi57%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi56%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf51%
J.D. Vance49%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani44%
Marco Rubio42%
Masoud Pezeshkian40%
Rafael Grossi39%
Ishaq Dar34%
Kazem Gharibabadi21%
Nick Stewart19%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi16%
Donald Trump12%
Esmail Qaani12%
Pete Hegseth6%
Ahmad Vahidi6%
Mojtaba Khamenei5%

Market context

Market consensus: 73% chance of توقع: who will attend a round of us-iran peace talks by december 31?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market…

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?
Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
Which sports markets are available?
Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
How fast do sports winnings settle?
Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Can I import form data and lineups?
This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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