Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
62% | 38% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
62% | 38% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Lisa Demuth | 62% |
| Mike Lindell | 36% |
| Kendall Qualls | 1% |
| Scott Jensen | 0% |
| Jeff Johnson | 0% |
| Patrick Knight | 0% |
| Brad Kohler | 0% |
| Chris Madel | 0% |
| Phil Parrish | 0% |
| Kristin Robbins | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
| Candidate B | 0% |
| Candidate C | 0% |
| Candidate D | 0% |
| Candidate E | 0% |
| Candidate F | 0% |
| Candidate G | 0% |
| Candidate H | 0% |
| Candidate I | 0% |
| Candidate J | 0% |
| Candidate K | 0% |
| Candidate L | 0% |
| Candidate M | 0% |
| Candidate N | 0% |
| Candidate O | 0% |
| Candidate P | 0% |
| Candidate Q | 0% |
| Candidate R | 0% |
| Candidate S | 0% |
| Candidate T | 0% |
| Candidate U | 0% |
| Candidate V | 0% |
| Candidate W | 0% |
| Candidate X | 0% |
| Candidate Y | 0% |
| Candidate Z | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 62% probability to توقع: minnesota governor republican primary winner. This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the …
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Minnesota Governor Republican Primary Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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