توقع: Putin out as President of Russia by 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Vladimir Putin is still in office, and the market is effectively pricing the chance of an interruption to his presidency before 30 June 2027 at a low single-digit to high-single-digit level, with the current crowd-implied probability at 9% YES. Under the market rules, a formal resignation or removal announcement would settle it to YES immediately, even if the handover happened later; detention or any other permanent removal from duty would also qualify.[1][2]

That 9% sits against a strong institutional backdrop. Russia’s 2020 constitutional changes reset term limits and, in practice, created a runway for Putin to remain president through 2030 and potentially beyond, which is why most comparable long-dated forecasting markets lean heavily to NO.[6][7][11] Similar markets elsewhere on Putin’s tenure have tended to sit well below 20% for mid-2027 horizons, reflecting the absence of any scheduled succession mechanism before his current mandate ends.[1][3][4]

For traders, the live catalysts are not election-cycle noise but abrupt political events: an official Kremlin statement on resignation or removal, credible elite infighting, a serious health-related absence, detention, or a sudden constitutional or security crisis. The next fixed checkpoint is the 2030 presidential election timetable, so the 2027 window is mainly exposed to black-swan disruption rather than routine calendar risk.[2][6][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Putin out as President of Russia by 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.