توقع: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Islamic Republic is still functioning as a state, but the market is pricing a very low chance that its core institutions are actually displaced by the end of 2026. Recent reporting says the government has reasserted control after the winter protests, with no clear signs of military or security defections, while outside assessments continue to argue that street unrest alone has not yet translated into regime collapse.[1][3][4]

That is why the 9% YES line sits closer to a tail-risk than to a base case. Even analysts who see the system under heavy strain describe a prolonged internal contest rather than a sudden overthrow, and forecast models published in April still put forced regime change at only 4–9% over one year.[3][4][9] For comparison, the 2025–2026 protest wave was the biggest since the 1979 revolution, yet it still produced intense repression rather than a break in the clerical-security chain of command.[10]

Traders should watch for evidence that the regime is losing control of coercive institutions, not just facing demonstrations. Key catalysts are changes in IRGC or Basij command structures, any reported defections among senior officers, and whether the government keeps making security and media appointments to tighten control, as it did on 27 January 2026.[2] Any credible reporting on leadership succession, the status of the Supreme Leader, or a sustained loss of control in multiple major cities would matter far more than routine protest coverage.[1][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

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