توقع: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A 6.5+ earthquake worldwide is a relatively common but still lumpy event, so a **96%** crowd probability is only credible if the week already contained one or more qualifying shocks. The recent record shows that magnitude 6.5 and above events do occur regularly in 2026: USGS’s 2026 significant-earthquake pages and independent catalogues list several such quakes this year, including a 6.8 in Kyushu on 28 July, a 6.9 off Honshu on 24 June, a 6.6 off Kamchatka on 19 June and a 6.5 off Mindanao on 26 June[1][7][15]. That background means the market is not asking whether a 6.5+ quake is plausible in general, but whether the August 3–9 window captured at least one event of that size.

The main catalyst for traders is the official USGS search and event list, because resolution depends on the final catalogue entry rather than live media reports[8]. Earthquake reporting can lag by hours or, for borderline events, involve post-event magnitude revisions, so a market this late can still turn on whether USGS subsequently upgrades or downgrades a quake near the threshold[8]. Recent third-party trackers show routine seismicity but no clear signal of a burst of 6.5+ events in the period: one world report for 9 August listed four 5.0+ quakes and explicitly said there were no 6.0+ events in the prior 24 hours[5], while daily trackers on 3 August also showed only sub-6.5 activity[12]. A trader should therefore watch the USGS catalogue for any late-added or revised event inside the settlement window, especially in high-activity subduction zones such as the western Pacific.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Football-specific comparison page for توقع: How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.