Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken | 79% |
| Completed Match | 70% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 Winner | 55% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Game Spread +/-0.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for توقع: US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken. This market refers to the tennis match between Vilius Gaubas and Harry Wendelken in the US Open, Qualification ATP, originally scheduled for August 27, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: US Open, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Harry Wendelken. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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