Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of توقع: bonn: jamie mackenzie vs jurij rodionov. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Jamie Mackenzie and Jurij Rodionov in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ja…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Bonn: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jurij Rodionov. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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