Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
76% | 24% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
76% | 24% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils | 76% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 1 Winner | 70% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 2 Winner | 67% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 65% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 54% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 22.5 | 43% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Match O/U 23.5 | 40% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 36% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 28% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 28% |
| Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 13% |
Market context
Market consensus: 76% chance of توقع: canadian open: kamil majchrzak vs gael monfils. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Kamil Majchrzak and Gael Monfils in the Canadian Open, originally scheduled for August 3, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resol…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Canadian Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Gael Monfils. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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