Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via احتمالات كأس العالم) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt | 91% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 2 Winner | 83% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 1 Winner | 83% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 73% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 67% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Match O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Match O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Match O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 19% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, توقع: mubadala citi dc open: alex de minaur vs cruz hewitt stands at 91% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Cruz Hewitt in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 1:00PM ET. This market will r…
Methodology
Football-specific comparison page for توقع: Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Cruz Hewitt. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi (US-focused) or Manifold (play-money).
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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